![]() ![]() But the chance of two items being the same is only 1 in 100. The chance of two primals both being T&T is obviously 1 in 10.000. If a given class drop can be one in (let's say) 100 items, then the chance of a particular legendary (like T&T) dropping is 1%. As someone else said it's similar to the birthday paradox. And 1 in 10 or so if you gambled/upgraded rares.Ĭhances are low, but probably not nearly as low as you think. the chances of the first two primals you find being the same item.Īnd the answer is it's more common than you might think, 1 in a few hundred for random drops. But if I'm understanding your question right, the situation you are asking about is more like the first example here, I.e. You only have to bring the primal chance into it if you are asking what the chances of the first two items you find, including non-ancients, are the same primal item. Or 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 or so if it's gambled at Kadala or upgraded from rares with the cube, depending on slot (this drastically reduces the item pool so makes it much more likely you get two of the same item). Which is 1 in a few hundred if it's a random drop. You just need to know the probability that two drops are the same item. Since you are conditioning on both items being primal. If you asking what the chances of the first two primal you find being the same item, the chance of the item being primal doesn't matter. OP, you can sort of ignore the probability of an item being primal in this calculation. So it's probably somewhere in the ballpark of 1 in 300. It depends a bit on class (different classes have different numbers of items in their drop tables) but I think it's a few hundred items for each class. Which is 1/365.Īnd funnily enough, the probability of two items being the same is similar here. This is more like the probability that exactly two people have the same birthday. That would be similar to the birthday paradox. ![]() OP oesn't have 20-30 primal items and wants to know the chances two of them are the same. He would have to have more primal items for this to apply. ![]()
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